Thema des Tages: Steht die Ukraine-Hilfe vor dem Aus?

And we begin in Washington this morning, where a last-minute deal has averted a government

shutdown.

The bill was passed just before the midnight deadline that would have seen tens of thousands

of federal employees placed on furlough.

And it funds the government for 45 days.

There is no additional aid to Ukraine.

The pro-Russian ex-Minister President Robert Vizo and his left-wing majority have won the

parliamentary elections in Slovakia.

While the political elite is clearly pro-Western and pro-Ukrainian, Vizo has decided to take

a pro-Russian attitude.

The new, old, strong man in Bratislava points with a lot of criticism on the EU and a lot

praise for Vladimir Putin.

And also this so-called Putin-friend has made the election campaign, especially with this,

the Slovak military aid for Ukraine.

We are talking today about what is behind this anti-Ukrainian mood and whether the support

for the threatened country stands out.

Erich Frey is analysing the international policy for the standard and we have several interesting

building sites that we have to take a look at.

It is in the past weekend, the first time, in the USA, a so-called shutdown, the US policy

has been abolished.

Can you explain why this is happening in such a shutdown and why this danger is always

rising again?

Yes, the USA needs a new budget every year and it has to be decided by the Congress every

year.

We do not know at the moment.

Both are Democrats, the Senators have a low democratic majority, but the House of Representatives

has a very low majority of Republicans in the last Congress elections.

And now both parties have to agree to decide on their budget together.

This is often very difficult because the goals of the Democrats and Republicans are very

different and there was always a situation where they could not agree to a certain deadline.

This was October 1st and if this happens, the American government will pay for it.

It has certain things and there are institutions such as national parks and ministries and certain

public institutions that they have to close or they have to listen to federal officials

to pay.

Policies and others just have to work on it until the budget is finally decided.

In the past, there were these phases again and again of this so-called shutdown.

This has actually always hurt the Republicans who provoked the shutdown and you think they

could have learned something from it, but they obviously did not.

And this time it was particularly difficult because the majority of the Republicans are

so few.

That is why this small fraction of ultra-right-wing leaders is doing a lot.

If they do not agree, then the Republicans have no majority in the Congress.

And that was the big problem for the speaker Kevin McCarthy.

He made a budget proposal that was not acceptable for the Democrats, but for these radical Republicans

also not far enough in all the demands that they want to achieve everything here in order

to achieve their goals.

And they threatened if McCarthy somehow compromises with the Democrats, then they will fall.

And this taunting, this nerve game took up to the end and a few hours before the deadline

McCarthy finally got involved and made a compromise with the Democrats in the House of Representatives.

The bill is passed, and with that objection, the motion to reconsider is laid on the table.

In America, you say that kicking the can down the alley.

We simply said, how do we move the problem?

In 45 days, we make an transition budget where the current budget is actually more or less

will continue and now we have 45 days to negotiate a new and permanent budget.

Whether it will work is open, it can be good that in 45 days, then sometime in mid-November,

we have exactly the same problem and probably the next shutdown will be threatened again.

But in the meantime, something else has happened, namely, this group of ultra-right-wing Republicans

now want to make their drugs true and McCarthy, as a spokesman for the corruption of his office,

what would be possible again, because without him he has no majority and so that he could have been elected at all,

he has made a commitment to vote for me, it's true for me, but you could always get rid of me if you wanted.

And that is now threatening to happen.

Why? Because McCarthy said, I am sensible, I am adult.

We do not want the half of the government to be closed.

We want to have a budget where we can achieve our goals, but not lay down the American state apparatus.

That is exactly what these groups of ultra-right-wing very, very radical leaders want.

They actually do not want this state to work, because they actually see the state per se as an enemy image.

But that means that in these 45 days now, there could be even more heated debates and the whole thing will continue to slide to the right.

We will see what happens, will it be possible for McCarthy to collapse?

Then the question comes, who is coming instead of him?

And that is exactly the same problem, because a representative of the right-wing radical party also has no majority in the Republicans.

And because the parties do not really work together, because at the party ship, on both sides today,

it is very, very beautiful, very, very friendly to be seen.

We are in a possible turmoil, from which the American policy will not come out so quickly.

That means the word shut down, we still have to notice for the next few months.

But now there is a very interesting point in this transition budget that has been talked about very much internationally.

Because apparently there is no new aid for the Ukraine. Why is that?

That is exactly the point where the Democrats had to make a commitment.

Everything remains the way it is, only for the Ukraine, no further negotiations are made.

The Democrats have agreed to it, because they then said it does not look good,

if we say we are sorry when the institutions are closed, when the shutdown happens.

Why are we doing this not for America, but for the Ukraine?

Do you have the feeling that the public majority would not be on your side?

The hope is that in the next budget, that then maybe at some point it will be decided,

very well how the money for the Ukraine is there.

Especially because the majority of the Republican Party will absolutely continue to support Ukraine.

In the Senate this support is even very, very strong and there is also a necessary mood.

But on the right side, on the populist side, a Trump camp grows the skepticism,

we want the money for our own people and not for the foreigners out there who are fighting there.

Because there is always this mood to say a little away, well, this war is meaningless,

Putin will not lose it and the fronts do not move.

So there is the skepticism in the public opinion absolutely grown and that is now reflected in this transition decision.

Do you think that in the next budget more help will be given to Ukraine or could this really go down as a treatment measure?

I can't imagine that the help will be completely drawn.

The American establishment, the Democrats, the majority of the Republicans, the media,

all too much see Ukraine as a very important thing for American foreign policy.

And what you don't want is a scenario like back in Afghanistan in the summer of 2021,

where the USA says, we pull back and that is actually a low position as a complete retreat for the American power in the world.

As far as it is certainly not going to come, but every dollar will probably have to be much harder.

And it could be that in the end this greatness of the American state is for Ukraine,

to give this constant readiness to give even more money, economic support and military support,

that it will be more difficult to fight and ultimately a little less will fall out.

And the USA really supported Ukraine until a very large extent.

Can you describe a little bit more how big is this number of people who are now critical of Ukraine and why will they really do that?

It is still a minority, the American support for Ukraine still has a certain majority,

but this majority has become relatively small.

There are different motives.

The one motive is the typical motive, no money for foreigners, we need it ourselves.

The Americans have the feeling that it is going to be a bad economy, although that is not true at all.

The American economy is booming and why should money flow elsewhere?

And now a growing isolationism comes to the republican side.

A feeling that was also very strong in the 1920s and 1930s, the last century.

The opinion that we have to take care of ourselves and the world outside should slip us down the buck.

That was completely turned into a cold war.

At that time there was a great consensus.

Everything that happened in the world to fight communism, we are behind it.

And that has continued since the end of the Soviet Union, but Putin will no longer be seen as an enemy.

Trump himself had a certain admiration for him and all the Trump supporters.

And that is a majority of the Republican Party on the basis.

Part of this opinion, well, Putin is not so bad and Ukraine is corrupt and why should we do that?

This war will be seen as a war between the two, a democratic war.

And this polarization in society also leads to the fact that many Republicans say whatever the democratic president wants, we are against it.

And thirdly, if something is seen as a world political threat, then it is China.

And that is the feeling with some intellectuals.

And also people who say, yes, we should support Ukraine and Putin is a problem, but that does not allow us to distract from China, which are much more dangerous and also the skepticism grows there.

If the USA would not support Ukraine in the same way as before, could the Ukrainians still defend themselves in the long term?

That depends on how strong this help will be back.

If it is only about a certain percentage of the economic aid or about any other weapons, then it is a heavy blow for Ukraine.

Then they can probably continue to defend themselves, but possibly not continue the current offensive.

And here we are really in a devil's circle, in a catch-22, as the Americans call it.

Because this offensive is not going on, the support for Ukraine also goes back.

And if the aid goes back and the Ukrainians can do something much less to distract the Russian occupation from their own territory,

then this silence will still take back the willingness to support.

And in the end, the point will possibly come where the USA will say, well, we will continue to do everything so that Ukraine can hold this front.

This willingness to say, we are ready to help you to completely liberate your state area, a little bit to the crime.

And you decide alone when this war can end and when I am ready to deal with it.

This time of the two governments and still of the majority political establishment representative attitude could very well go to the end.

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Erik, when we look at Europe and specifically in our neighboring country in Slovakia.

Then there at the weekend.

There was also a very exciting political result.

Namely, a certain Robert Fizzo.

The parliaments were won there.

Why is this result so special?

Robert Fizzo was a premier for ten years.

He had to return in 2018.

Because of his treason with oligarchs.

Where he was then also killed by a journalist.

And there was a robbery.

Where his government, his system was blamed.

He was in the opposition for five years.

And now he returns.

The election victory is not triumphant.

23% is far away from a majority.

But in this fragmented party system in Slovakia.

He clearly has the strongest power.

And so he has the first option to win a election.

Fizzo is an extreme populist.

And as one who is also a bit like Viktor Orban.

Does not hold on to democratic norms.

And the third thing he drew out was in this election campaign.

To say these statements.

We will not support the Ukraine at all.

We listen to this.

So he is considered a Putin friend.

Even if he is not Putin directly around arms.

Has he stronger than almost someone else.

Under European leading politicians.

Here against the war in Ukraine.

Against the EU support.

Positioned.

And that is of course a very clear signal.

That in a country that also borders on Ukraine.

The mood has not necessarily changed.

Because this skepticism was also before.

But now in a election result.

There are a lot of exciting quotes in it.

But what is most of the time stuck with me.

This support for Ukraine.

So he is now actually from Slovakia.

Nothing sent to Ukraine.

Then weapons supply support.

That depends on how the next government will look like.

Fizzo has the problem.

He needs coalition partners.

And everyone who is willing to cooperate with him.

Would like to keep the support of Ukraine.

That is mainly for his former party friend Pellegrini.

But he then turned away from him.

But now I would be ready to form a common government.

He has about 15% of the votes.

So it would be a significant power.

Another nationalist party on the right also says.

Yes, we support a lot of what Fizzo wants.

Theoretically as a social democrat.

But we have to stick with Ukraine.

So I think if Fizzo forms the government.

Then the support will become weaker.

But not completely stop.

Or I don't think Slovakia will block everything.

What will happen in the EU.

That will not be possible in the coalition.

And Slovakia is not so important for Ukraine.

Poland is an important Romania.

More important transit countries for military aid.

But as a signal for a mood that is in all of Europe.

Is this election and probably the future government.

If it looks like that.

Certainly a certain omen.

And especially when you say that Fizzo is a friend of Putin.

Can you also have a big influence with Putin.

Such a kind of agent or at least a supporter in Europe.

Has one more.

He would then have a second with Fizzo next to Orban.

The two could theoretically block everything.

Every sanction and every aid in the EU.

Because foreign policy is very, very strong in the EU.

Still requires consistency.

However, we do not forget.

Orban has so far also carried out every single action measure.

He has always threatened, but then in the end said yes.

And these small Eastern European states are very strong.

Also from the good will of the EU Commission.

But also the large Western European states.

Dependent.

And I would not expect a complete obstruction policy.

But a little more sand in the transmission.

It will certainly be in this pro-Ukrainian EU machinery.

And you do not think that there is such a kind of axis between Orban and Fizzo.

Could you then basically be stronger together?

To deal with other measures?

Secondly, they are certainly a little stronger.

So far, Orban was the most closely connected in the EU.

Poland.

And Poland has the completely different position to Ukraine.

Full support.

Absolute rejection of Putin.

So for the first time he has a brother in mind who at the same time has a similar opinion to Ukraine.

Together they are a little stronger.

But we do not forget that Slovakia is a very small country.

This will not give the result for the European politics of the next time.

But on the other hand, from Poland, you have already heard reports that there are problems with Ukraine.

Now very specifically how to get rid of it.

In the whole of Europe there is sometimes a bit of a mood that there are cases like in Slovakia

that a vote is won with an anti-Ukrainian mood.

Where does that come from in Europe?

I do not think that the vote with the anti-Ukrainian mood will be won.

Fizzo has won for other reasons.

It was about the economy.

It was about a bit of a protest vote against the last government that was constantly fighting.

That was very unstable.

They were a normal conservative party in a union there.

But that the people are ready to say that Ukraine is not important to us at least enough.

That we still say to someone how much to choose shows that the topic is not the ruling party.

And I think it is also about the people who support Ukraine.

For them it is a topic of many who are against it today.

It is still much more.

This is a bit like back then in the corona pandemic.

The measures against the people who were fully charged.

And they saw it as a fight against the system.

And I believe that something similar happens here.

The war in Ukraine becomes a kind of symbol for the politics of the mainstream,

the establishment of the elite.

And if you are unhappy about your life and say that you are protesting against everything that is going on here,

then you take this position against the war and even for Putin.

Germany is a supporter of the AFD in Austria.

The FPÖ and everywhere these right-wing populist parties are very strong in this feeling and profit from it.

It is not the reason why these people are being elected.

The parties are being elected.

But it forms a whole spectrum of opinions that you have,

that are all against those up there.

Such a criticism of the system is a political plan under which in the end

especially the people of Ukraine suffer.

The civil population who suffer under the war.

Now we see it in Europe more and more often.

In the USA it seems that at least the support comes into this political treatment mass.

Do you think this united political front, which has given the largest part in the West,

for the support of Ukraine, that it is now completely broken at the end?

It is definitely weakening.

And that is not surprising.

The war is already taking half a year.

It does not take an end.

That means you have the feeling that nothing is leading.

And the interesting thing is, if you say that the Ukrainians who suffer under it,

the critics of the support for Ukraine bring exactly the suffering of Ukraine

and say, well, the poor should not die any longer.

I want to do something good for them.

I will contribute to the fact that this war is coming to an end.

That the Ukrainian population still stands behind this war with great majority

and says, we want to defend our country.

We also want to liberate it.

That will be ignored very much.

In any case, these fronts move in the public opinion.

While the Europeans are still very, very closed and the USA is still very closed

behind this support for Ukraine,

it takes everything away.

That does not mean that it is going to end.

That does not mean that the other position, namely we help Ukraine no more

or we force it to a treatment table with a Vladimir Putin

who is not interested in compromises,

but actually at the destruction of Ukraine,

which in principle most people know,

that this will definitely win the upper hand,

but the debates will get harder

and everything will possibly get a little tighter than it was before.

Let's not forget that many weapons that are now being delivered

could have been delivered a year ago.

It did not happen because you said, well, we do not want to provoke Putin,

we do not want to escalate the war

and if we do not want to escalate this,

it should get a little stronger.

And in the end, this whole development probably plays the most part in Putin's hands, right?

Yes, because since Putin has lost this first lightning war in Russia,

there is a current strategy in place

that the Western support for Ukraine will end

and that it can then reach its goals in this way,

at least the occupation of an important part of Ukraine.

And that is particularly the expectation, the hope for him,

a role that Donald Trump will return to 2024.

Now, whether that happens or not, we do not know,

but what I think will be in the West then and then consciously

is that if you start to bring back the support of Ukraine,

then Putin has a success, then he has possibly a triumph

and that may also trigger a certain counter-revolution.

Because many people who say, well, this war does not lead to anything,

we will listen to it.

If it looks like that, then it is absolutely possible for Putin

to have a great victory.

Therefore, many people will then also retreat again.

That is why I expect that everything will remain a little in a kind of heavy state.

So really, in all dimensions,

in all dimensions, not only military and for the population,

but also for the political discourse.

Thank you for giving us a very big political analysis today,

honestly.

You're welcome.

And don't miss any further episodes.

With the opportunity, we also look forward to very good reviews

or nice comments, so we can find more people.

Thank you very much for that.

We'll be right back.

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And here's what you'll have to know from now on.

First of all, the People's Party of ÖVP has obviously sent an e-mail

in which such a possible investigation of shots

against several parliament parties.

The e-mail was surprised by the NEOS,

the CEO of Beate Meynel Reisinger,

in which he published the content of the document

in a press conference.

In the document, plans for a U-exercise are described

which is to deal with re-executions and insertions

of the last about 16 years.

In that, the ÖVP will have its own chapter

of several parliament parties.

The SPÖ should then be the so-called

Austrian Beinschaft Tool.

With the Greens, the Climate Ministry

is to be examined by Minister Leonore Gewessler

and the SPÖ should be reviewed by the marketing department

by Herbert Kickler.

However, the document remains mostly vague,

extensive and unremarkable,

and the suspicious moments are not included in it.

In a reaction to the leak, the ÖVP says

that only shots against the government will run in the conversation.

That's why you have to consider

to design this less one-sided,

as it is called from the ÖVP.

Neoschef in Mainle Reisinger

describes the plans as a potential collision break

because the green government partner of the ÖVP

probably didn't know anything about the plans.

Second, around 40% of people in Austria

want that the political system here in the country

basically changes.

There is a new study that the Linser Market Institute

has carried out for the standard.

It is particularly strong after a change

with supporters of the FPÖ and non-voteers.

When it comes to concrete questions,

only 30% of the asked FPÖ voters

assume that the Nazi dictatorship

should be abolished

and that neo-Nazis should be punished.

Also, when it comes to democracy,

freedom of opinion,

and social security in the case of disease,

FPÖ voters have reacted

with fewer votes than the average.

However, it is also exciting

that other political extremists

also talk about supporters

of the Communist Party of Austria

as the beer party for major changes

in our politics.

And third, today Wednesday

was the first Nobel Prize of this year

given, namely those for medicine.

They got in Catalina Carrico

and Drew Weisman.

The two have done important work

for the mRNA vaccines,

which have protected the past years

among other countless people from Covid.

The two are allowed to celebrate

a particularly high prize money this year

when it was raised by 10 to 11 million

which corresponds to the current course

a little more than 900,000 euros.

The rest of the week

will be exciting from the point of view of research,

because until next Friday

another Nobel Prize will be awarded

from Physique on Tuesday

to the peace Nobel Prize on Friday.

The next Monday

will then make the conclusion

for economic sciences.

During the report on the Nobel Prize,

you can always read it on the standard.at

together with all the others

for you. In our sister podcast

Inside Austria, it is the new episode

about the fifth and last time about Herbert Kickel.

My colleagues are talking about

what actually the secret of success

of the self-proclaimed Volkskanzler

is and how, according to experts,

our democracy is endangered.

Inside Austria, you can hear

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